Tennis · Challenger Braga · 07/10, 11:00
Prediction: Marvin Moeller vs Tiago Torres
Team pages: Marvin Moeller · Tiago Torres
Prediction summary
Winner
Marvin Moeller
Tiago Torres
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marvin Moeller
6-4 (W-L)
Tiago Torres
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marvin Moeller 1554 · Tiago Torres 1484
| Marvin Moeller | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marvin Moeller (rating 1554 vs 1484).
- Note: Tiago Torres makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Marvin Moeller | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.3 | 11-11.7 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 5.8 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 41.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marvin Moeller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/09 | Dali Blanch Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 23/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/09 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 15/09 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Matias Soto Challenger Tulln · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 27/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Matias Soto Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Thomas Faurel Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Tiago Torres
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Jerome Kym Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 17/09 | Tiago Cacao M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Jack Anthrop M25 Sintra |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 08/09 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 31/08 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Hugo Gaston ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Patrick Schoen M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marvin Moeller vs Tiago Torres?
Our model gives 61% to Marvin Moeller, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.