Tennis · Challenger Braga · 07/10, 11:00
Prediction: Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moller
Team pages: Thiago Monteiro · Elmer Moller
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Monteiro
Elmer Moller
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Monteiro
6-4 (W-L)
Elmer Moller
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Thiago Monteiro
0–1
Elmer Moller
(1 last)
- 15 Apr1-2 11-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Monteiro 1529 · Elmer Moller 1443
| Thiago Monteiro | Elmer Moller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1529 vs 1443).
- Thiago Monteiro is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Thiago Monteiro 0–1 Elmer Moller (1).
- Note: Elmer Moller makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Thiago Monteiro | Elmer Moller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-12.7 | 10-12.3 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 34% | 38.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
H2H · Thiago Monteiro 0 – 1 Elmer Moller (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thiago Monteiro 0–1 Elmer Moller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/25 Challenger Oeiras | 1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Monteiro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 20/09 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/09 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/09 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/09 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 04/09 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Elmer Moller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Iliyan Radulov Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Grigor Dimitrov Davis Cup |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 02/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Jerome Kym Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/08 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moller?
Our model gives 60% to Thiago Monteiro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.