Tennis · Challenger Wuning · 07/10, 04:00
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Akira Santillan
Team pages: Luca Castelnuovo · Akira Santillan
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Akira Santillan
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
6-4 (W-L)
Akira Santillan
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1519 · Akira Santillan 1453
| Luca Castelnuovo | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Castelnuovo (rating 1519 vs 1453).
- Luca Castelnuovo is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.2 | 9.5-10.7 |
| Aces | 10 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 78.3% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 38.4% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 16/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Akira Santillan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Alex Bolt ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 22/09 | Kaigaoge Kang ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Sanhui Shin M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Akira Santillan?
Our model gives 54% to Luca Castelnuovo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.