Tennis · Challenger Wuning · 09/10, 04:00
Prediction: Keisuke Saitoh vs Akira Santillan
Team pages: Keisuke Saitoh · Akira Santillan
Prediction summary
Winner
Keisuke Saitoh
Akira Santillan
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Keisuke Saitoh
6-4 (W-L)
Akira Santillan
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keisuke Saitoh 1586 · Akira Santillan 1510
| Keisuke Saitoh | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keisuke Saitoh (rating 1586 vs 1510).
- Akira Santillan dominates on serve: 6 aces and 45.7% break avg.
- Keisuke Saitoh is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Keisuke Saitoh | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-7.7 | 11.1-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 6 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 63.3% | 45.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keisuke Saitoh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/10 | Dominik Palan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Yusuke Takahashi Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 04/10 | Zicong Wang Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 29/09 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/09 | Jerry Roddick M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/09 | Seong Chan Hong M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 11/09 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/09 | Yu Tanaka M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Akira Santillan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Alex Bolt ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 22/09 | Kaigaoge Kang ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keisuke Saitoh vs Akira Santillan?
Our model gives 52% to Keisuke Saitoh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.