Tennis · Challenger Wuning · 07/10, 04:00
Prediction: Keegan Smith vs Hiroki Moriya
Team pages: Keegan Smith · Hiroki Moriya
Prediction summary
Winner
Keegan Smith
Hiroki Moriya
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Keegan Smith
3-7 (W-L)
Hiroki Moriya
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keegan Smith 1474 · Hiroki Moriya 1491
| Keegan Smith | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Keegan Smith | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-14.6 | 11.6-10.1 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 65% |
| Break % | 15.3% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Edward Winter Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 15/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 24/08 | Alexis Galarneau US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
Hiroki Moriya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Jilong Huang Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 09/09 | Maximus Jones Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Dominik Palan Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 01/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/08 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/08 | Grigoriy Lomakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Tung-Lin Wu M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keegan Smith vs Hiroki Moriya?
Our model gives 60% to Keegan Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.