Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 03/10, 02:00
Prediction: Ryota Tanuma vs Ryotaro Matsumura
Team pages: Ryota Tanuma · Ryotaro Matsumura
Prediction summary
Winner
Ryota Tanuma
Ryotaro Matsumura
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ryota Tanuma
4-6 (W-L)
Ryotaro Matsumura
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ryota Tanuma
1–2
Ryotaro Matsumura
(3 last)
- 18 Jul2-0 12-0W
- 23 Aug0-2 8-13L
- 17 Aug0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryota Tanuma 1539 · Ryotaro Matsumura 1586
| Ryota Tanuma | Ryotaro Matsumura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryotaro Matsumura (rating 1539 vs 1586).
- Head-to-head: Ryota Tanuma 1–2 Ryotaro Matsumura (3).
Statistics
| Ryota Tanuma | Ryotaro Matsumura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-8.8 | 12-8.3 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.4% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 50.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
H2H · Ryota Tanuma 1 – 2 Ryotaro Matsumura (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ryota Tanuma 1–2 Ryotaro Matsumura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 UTR Pro Kawaguchi | 2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 23/08/25 UTR Pro Yokohama | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/08/25 UTR Pro Yokohama | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryota Tanuma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/09 | Corban Crowther UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/09 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Jerry Roddick M25 Sapporo |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Naoya Honda M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Mao Takada M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/09 | Naoki Nakagawa M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Hikaru Shiraishi M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Yuta Kawahashi M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 25/08 | Kai-I Wang M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Ryotaro Matsumura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Kanata Ozaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/09 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Shingo Masuda UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/03 | Naoki Nakagawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/03 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 05/03 | Bence Boros UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/03 | Christopher Kosei Ono UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryota Tanuma vs Ryotaro Matsumura?
Our model gives 55% to Ryotaro Matsumura, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.