Tennis · W75 Quinta Do Lago · 02/10, 12:30
Prediction: Lisa Pigato vs Polona Hercog
Team pages: Lisa Pigato · Polona Hercog
Prediction summary
Winner
Lisa Pigato
Polona Hercog
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Lisa Pigato
8-2 (W-L)
Polona Hercog
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lisa Pigato
1–0
Polona Hercog
(1 last)
- 23 Apr2-0 12-2W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lisa Pigato 1602 · Polona Hercog 1457
| Lisa Pigato | Polona Hercog | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lisa Pigato (rating 1602 vs 1457).
- Lisa Pigato is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Lisa Pigato 1–0 Polona Hercog (1).
Statistics
| Lisa Pigato | Polona Hercog | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-8.7 | 10.5-12.4 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 61.8% | 61.6% |
| Break % | 51.7% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
H2H · Lisa Pigato 1 – 0 Polona Hercog (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lisa Pigato 1–0 Polona Hercog
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 W75 Chiasso | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lisa Pigato
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Adrienn Nagy W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/09 | Jasmijn Gimbrere W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/09 | Gabriela Knutson WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Jeline Vandromme WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Susan Bandecchi WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 16/09 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/09 | Sana Garakani WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 24/08 | Linda Klimovicova US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Angela Fita Boluda WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 04/07 | Alice Tubello W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Polona Hercog
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Naiktha Bains W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/09 | Ayana Akli W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 21/09 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Tolentino · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 14/09 | Julie Struplova WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Moyuka Uchijima US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Laura Pigossi W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Dalila Jakupovic WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 23/06 | Bianca Andreescu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson W75 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Ayla Aksu W75 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lisa Pigato vs Polona Hercog?
Our model gives 73% to Lisa Pigato, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.