Tennis · M25 Darwin · 02/10, 09:00
Prediction: Derek Pham vs Jake Delaney
Team pages: Derek Pham · Jake Delaney
Prediction summary
Winner
Derek Pham
Jake Delaney
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Derek Pham
6-4 (W-L)
Jake Delaney
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Derek Pham
2–1
Jake Delaney
(3 last)
- 07 Aug2-1 18-16W
- 10 Dec2-1 17-10W
- 26 Apr1-2 11-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derek Pham 1516 · Jake Delaney 1465
| Derek Pham | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derek Pham (rating 1516 vs 1465).
- Head-to-head: Derek Pham 2–1 Jake Delaney (3).
Statistics
| Derek Pham | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-10.3 | 10.4-12.4 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 11.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 43.4% | 38.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
H2H · Derek Pham 2 – 1 Jake Delaney (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derek Pham 2–1 Jake Delaney
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/25 M15 Brisbane | 2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 10/12/24 ITF M15 Wellington | 2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 26/04/23 ITF M25 Jakarta | 1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derek Pham
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Jeremy Beale M25 Darwin |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Joshua Charlton M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/09 | Ashwin Ryan Sharma M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/08 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 27/08 | Hayden Jones UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Alec Braund UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Casey Hoole UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/08 | Clint Charles UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Omar Jasika M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Chase Ferguson M15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Jake Delaney
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Lachlan Vickery M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/09 | Sam Ryan Ziegann M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Hikaru Shiraishi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 09/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 07/09 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 01/09 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Hyeon Chung M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Moerani Bouzige M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derek Pham vs Jake Delaney?
Our model gives 56% to Jake Delaney, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.