Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 01/10, 05:00
Prediction: Alex Bolt vs Evan Zhu
Team pages: Alex Bolt · Evan Zhu
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Bolt
Evan Zhu
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Bolt
5-5 (W-L)
Evan Zhu
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Bolt
2–0
Evan Zhu
(2 last)
- 22 Sept2-1 15-12W
- 06 May2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Bolt 1493 · Evan Zhu 1580
| Alex Bolt | Evan Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Evan Zhu (rating 1493 vs 1580).
- Evan Zhu is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alex Bolt 2–0 Evan Zhu (2).
Statistics
| Alex Bolt | Evan Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-11.8 | 12.9-9.6 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 3 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 27.6% | 58.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Alex Bolt 2 – 0 Evan Zhu (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Bolt 2–0 Evan Zhu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/25 Challenger Jingshan | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 06/05/25 Challenger Wuxi | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Bolt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Akira Santillan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Omar Jasika ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/07 | James McCabe ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Evan Zhu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Hanyi Liu Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Zhiheng Xia Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 22/09 | Henry Searle Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/09 | Aleksi Lofman Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Michael Zheng Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 14/09 | Ozan Baris Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 13/09 | Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 24/08 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Bolt vs Evan Zhu?
Our model gives 54% to Evan Zhu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.