Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 01/10, 05:00
Prediction: Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic
Team pages: Yuta Shimizu · Bernard Tomic
Prediction summary
Winner
Yuta Shimizu
Bernard Tomic
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Yuta Shimizu
5-5 (W-L)
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yuta Shimizu
0–1
Bernard Tomic
(1 last)
- 27 May1-2 17-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yuta Shimizu 1502 · Bernard Tomic 1568
| Yuta Shimizu | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1502 vs 1568).
- Head-to-head: Yuta Shimizu 0–1 Bernard Tomic (1).
Statistics
| Yuta Shimizu | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.2 | 12.9-10.9 |
| Aces | 4 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 58.3% | 31.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Yuta Shimizu 0 – 1 Bernard Tomic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yuta Shimizu 0–1 Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 Challenger Little Rock | 1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yuta Shimizu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 12/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 09/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Aditya Vishal Balsekar Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/08 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Bernard Tomic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Rigele Te ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/09 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic?
Our model gives 58% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.