Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 01/10, 04:00
Prediction: Lloyd Harris vs Luka Pavlovic
Team pages: Lloyd Harris · Luka Pavlovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Lloyd Harris
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
Lloyd Harris
8-2 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lloyd Harris 1627 · Luka Pavlovic 1507
| Lloyd Harris | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lloyd Harris (rating 1627 vs 1507).
- Lloyd Harris dominates on serve: 14.1 aces and 46.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Lloyd Harris | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-11.9 | 13.2-12.7 |
| Aces | 14.1 | 11.4 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 80.9% | 78.1% |
| Break % | 46.5% | 37.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lloyd Harris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 02/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 30/08 | Jack Kennedy US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Ha Minh Duc Vu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lloyd Harris vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 73% to Lloyd Harris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.