Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 01/10, 04:00
Prediction: Adam Walton vs Mattia Bellucci
Team pages: Adam Walton · Mattia Bellucci
Prediction summary
Winner
Adam Walton
Mattia Bellucci
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Adam Walton
7-3 (W-L)
Mattia Bellucci
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adam Walton
0–3
Mattia Bellucci
(3 last)
- 14 Mar0-2 8-13L
- 01 Oct0-2 7-13L
- 21 Jul1-2 13-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adam Walton 1517 · Mattia Bellucci 1561
| Adam Walton | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1517 vs 1561).
- Adam Walton dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 46.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Adam Walton 0–3 Mattia Bellucci (3).
Statistics
| Adam Walton | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-9.5 | 12.4-10.3 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 8.1 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 31.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Adam Walton 0 – 3 Mattia Bellucci (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adam Walton 0–3 Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Challenger Cap Cana | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/07/24 ATP Atlanta | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adam Walton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Moise Kouame Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/09 | Hikaru Shiraishi Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 24/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 17/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Mattia Bellucci
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/09 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 2-18 | L |
| 01/09 | Zsombor Piros US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 14/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adam Walton vs Mattia Bellucci?
Our model gives 54% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.