Tennis · M25 Darwin · 30/09, 10:30
Prediction: Harrison Satara vs Hayden Jones
Team pages: Hayden Jones
Prediction summary
Winner
Harrison Satara
Hayden Jones
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Harrison Satara
6-4 (W-L)
Hayden Jones
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Harrison Satara 1523 · Hayden Jones 1574
| Harrison Satara | Hayden Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hayden Jones (rating 1523 vs 1574).
- Harrison Satara dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 43% break avg.
- Hayden Jones is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Harrison Satara | Hayden Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.1 | 12.4-9.7 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 43% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Harrison Satara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Alec Braund M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Maksim Shin M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/09 | Geun Jun Kim M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Xiaoyin Yang M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 02/09 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kazuki Nakajima M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/07 | Charlie Pade M15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 28/07 | Thomas Nicholas Gadecki M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Omar Jasika M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Lachlan Mcfadzean M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Hayden Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Bali |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/09 | Raghav Jaisinghani M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/09 | Ryotaro Taguchi M15 Bali |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Blake Ellis M15 Bali |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 28/08 | Eric Tripathi UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Derek Pham UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Oscar Andrews UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Jacob Cairncross UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/08 | Omar Jasika UTR Pro Brisbane · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Harrison Satara vs Hayden Jones?
Our model gives 66% to Hayden Jones, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.