Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexandre Muller
Team pages: Mattia Bellucci · Alexandre Muller
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattia Bellucci
Alexandre Muller
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mattia Bellucci
6-4 (W-L)
Alexandre Muller
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mattia Bellucci
1–0
Alexandre Muller
(1 last)
- 23 Sept2-1 17-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattia Bellucci 1508 · Alexandre Muller 1534
| Mattia Bellucci | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Mattia Bellucci 1–0 Alexandre Muller (1).
Statistics
| Mattia Bellucci | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-11.3 | 10.3-9.4 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.8% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 27.8% | 27.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Mattia Bellucci 1 – 0 Alexandre Muller (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mattia Bellucci 1–0 Alexandre Muller
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/24 ATP Tokyo | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattia Bellucci
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 2-18 | L |
| 01/09 | Zsombor Piros US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 14/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Alexandre Muller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Moise Kouame ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Petr Bar Biryukov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Luka Pavlovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Ziga Sesko Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Laslo Djere US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattia Bellucci vs Alexandre Muller?
Our model gives 53% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.