Tennis · M25 Darwin · 29/09, 09:00
Prediction: Reece Falck vs Luca Connaughton
Team pages: Reece Falck
Prediction summary
Winner
Reece Falck
Luca Connaughton
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Reece Falck
4-6 (W-L)
Luca Connaughton
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Reece Falck 1447 · Luca Connaughton 1380
| Reece Falck | Luca Connaughton | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reece Falck (rating 1447 vs 1380).
Statistics
| Reece Falck | Luca Connaughton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 10% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 0.3-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-11.7 | 6.7-12.5 |
| Aces | 4 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.2% | 56.2% |
| Break % | 39.1% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Reece Falck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Alexander Chang M15 Bali |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 01/09 | Blake Ellis M15 Bali |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Benjamin Willwerth M15 Rochester |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Emon Van Loben Sels M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Alejandro Hayen M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Alexander Guajardo M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Vit Kalina M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Nathan Trouve M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Neo Niedner M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Diogo Morais M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
Luca Connaughton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Daniel Jankoski UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikita Volonski UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Jeremy Beale UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Ashton Mcleod UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/05 | Jonas Hahn UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Casey Ambler UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/05 | Marcus Schoeman UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Nicholas Jovanovski UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 09/05 | Jera Staley UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Reece Falck vs Luca Connaughton?
Our model gives 75% to Reece Falck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.