Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 29/09, 04:00
Prediction: Mattia Bellucci vs Keisuke Saitoh
Team pages: Mattia Bellucci · Keisuke Saitoh
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattia Bellucci
Keisuke Saitoh
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mattia Bellucci
5-5 (W-L)
Keisuke Saitoh
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattia Bellucci 1488 · Keisuke Saitoh 1595
| Mattia Bellucci | Keisuke Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keisuke Saitoh (rating 1488 vs 1595).
- Keisuke Saitoh is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mattia Bellucci | Keisuke Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12.8 | 10.6-7.7 |
| Aces | 8 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 65.7% |
| Break % | 24.1% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 2-18 | L |
| 01/09 | Zsombor Piros US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 14/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Keisuke Saitoh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/09 | Jerry Roddick M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/09 | Seong Chan Hong M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 11/09 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/09 | Yu Tanaka M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Kokoro Isomura M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Yanki Erel M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Chase Ferguson M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Sena Okabe M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattia Bellucci vs Keisuke Saitoh?
Our model gives 63% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.