Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 30/09, 04:00
Prediction: Alex Bolt vs Semen Pankin
Team pages: Alex Bolt · Semen Pankin
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Bolt
Semen Pankin
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Bolt
4-6 (W-L)
Semen Pankin
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Bolt 1475 · Semen Pankin 1478
| Alex Bolt | Semen Pankin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alex Bolt | Semen Pankin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 0% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-12.6 | 11.4-11.5 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 22.9% | 37.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Bolt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Akira Santillan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Omar Jasika ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/07 | James McCabe ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 13/06 | Jamie Mackenzie ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Semen Pankin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Sheng Tang M25 Yinchuan |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Yaojie Zeng M25 Yinchuan |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 07/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/08 | Dimitar Kisimov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Stefan Horia Haita M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 10-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Drazen Petrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 18/08 | Dusan Bazdar M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/08 | Fajing Sun Challenger Astana · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Bolt vs Semen Pankin?
Our model gives 59% to Alex Bolt, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.