Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 30/09, 04:00
Prediction: Akira Santillan vs Luka Pavlovic
Team pages: Akira Santillan · Luka Pavlovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Akira Santillan
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Akira Santillan
4-6 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Akira Santillan
0–1
Luka Pavlovic
(1 last)
- 30 Jun0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Akira Santillan 1466 · Luka Pavlovic 1515
| Akira Santillan | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luka Pavlovic (rating 1466 vs 1515).
- Head-to-head: Akira Santillan 0–1 Luka Pavlovic (1).
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Akira Santillan | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-10.9 | 13.2-12.4 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 10.6 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 78.4% |
| Break % | 49.6% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Akira Santillan 0 – 1 Luka Pavlovic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Akira Santillan 0–1 Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/26 Challenger Brasov | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Akira Santillan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Alex Bolt ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 22/09 | Kaigaoge Kang ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Sanhui Shin M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Ha Minh Duc Vu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Akira Santillan vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 57% to Luka Pavlovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.