Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 30/09, 04:00
Prediction: Lloyd Harris vs Alexis Galarneau
Team pages: Lloyd Harris · Alexis Galarneau
Prediction summary
Winner
Lloyd Harris
Alexis Galarneau
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Lloyd Harris
8-2 (W-L)
Alexis Galarneau
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lloyd Harris
1–0
Alexis Galarneau
(1 last)
- 23 Sept2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lloyd Harris 1637 · Alexis Galarneau 1499
| Lloyd Harris | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lloyd Harris (rating 1637 vs 1499).
- Lloyd Harris dominates on serve: 15 aces and 49.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Lloyd Harris 1–0 Alexis Galarneau (1).
Statistics
| Lloyd Harris | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-12.3 | 10.9-11.5 |
| Aces | 15 | 4 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 80.3% | 65.4% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Lloyd Harris 1 – 0 Alexis Galarneau (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lloyd Harris 1–0 Alexis Galarneau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/26 ATP Chengdu | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lloyd Harris
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 02/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 30/08 | Jack Kennedy US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 28/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Alexis Galarneau
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Elias Ymer ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Linang Xiao Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Keegan Smith US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Dino Prizmic Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lloyd Harris vs Alexis Galarneau?
Our model gives 70% to Lloyd Harris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.