Tennis · Challenger Jingshan · 28/09, 08:30
Prediction: Keisuke Saitoh vs Koki Matsuda
Team pages: Keisuke Saitoh · Koki Matsuda
Prediction summary
Winner
Keisuke Saitoh
Koki Matsuda
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Keisuke Saitoh
5-5 (W-L)
Koki Matsuda
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Keisuke Saitoh
1–1
Koki Matsuda
(2 last)
- 02 Nov1-2 16-18L
- 17 Sept2-1 16-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keisuke Saitoh 1560 · Koki Matsuda 1497
| Keisuke Saitoh | Koki Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keisuke Saitoh (rating 1560 vs 1497).
- Keisuke Saitoh is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Keisuke Saitoh | Koki Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-8.5 | 10.9-13.3 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 62.9% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 29.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Keisuke Saitoh 1 – 1 Koki Matsuda (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keisuke Saitoh 1–1 Koki Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/25 Challenger Matsuyama | 1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 17/09/25 ITF M25 Takasaki | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keisuke Saitoh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Jerry Roddick M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/09 | Seong Chan Hong M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 11/09 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/09 | Yu Tanaka M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Kokoro Isomura M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Yanki Erel M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Chase Ferguson M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Sena Okabe M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Tsung-Hao Huang M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Koki Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Martin Borisiouk Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 31/08 | Fanming Meng Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 30/08 | Kaito Uesugi Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 18/08 | Chen Hui Ho M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keisuke Saitoh vs Koki Matsuda?
Our model gives 56% to Keisuke Saitoh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.