Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 27/09, 13:30
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Coleman Wong
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Coleman Wong
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Coleman Wong
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
6-4 (W-L)
Coleman Wong
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1523 · Coleman Wong 1581
| Daniil Medvedev | Coleman Wong | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coleman Wong (rating 1523 vs 1581).
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (6.3/match).
- Note: Coleman Wong makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Coleman Wong | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-13.5 | 12.6-11.9 |
| Aces | 10.8 | 12.1 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.8% | 79% |
| Break % | 39.6% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 04/09 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Sebastian Gorzny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 17-21 | L |
Coleman Wong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 24/09 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 27/08 | Dusan Lajovic US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Lukas Neumayer US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/08 | Elmer Moller US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 22/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Alan Magadan Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Coleman Wong?
Our model gives 59% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.