Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 27/09, 06:00
Prediction: Hugo Gaston vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Hugo Gaston · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Hugo Gaston
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hugo Gaston
5-5 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hugo Gaston
0–1
Andrey Rublev
(1 last)
- 30 Jul0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Gaston 1538 · Andrey Rublev 1508
| Hugo Gaston | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Hugo Gaston 0–1 Andrey Rublev (1).
Statistics
| Hugo Gaston | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-11.5 | 15-12.7 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 77.3% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 37.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4.4
Over 20.5: 78% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 22% · 1.90
H2H · Hugo Gaston 0 – 1 Andrey Rublev (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hugo Gaston 0–1 Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/25 ATP Toronto | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/09 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 28/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Guido Ivan Justo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-24 | L |
| 31/08 | Otto Virtanen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 31-22 | W |
| 18/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Gaston vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 62% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.