Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 26/09, 07:00
Prediction: Fabian Marozsan vs Taro Daniel
Team pages: Fabian Marozsan · Taro Daniel
Prediction summary
Winner
Fabian Marozsan
Taro Daniel
Estimated games
21.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Fabian Marozsan
6-4 (W-L)
Taro Daniel
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fabian Marozsan 1508 · Taro Daniel 1568
| Fabian Marozsan | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taro Daniel (rating 1508 vs 1568).
Statistics
| Fabian Marozsan | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.5 | 11.9-8.7 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 40.6% | 52.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.8
Over 22.5: 44% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 56% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fabian Marozsan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Alex Bolt ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Louis Van Herck Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 28/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 27/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 6-18 | L |
Taro Daniel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Dane Sweeny ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Hayato Matsuoka ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/09 | Jake Delaney ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/09 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Andrew Johnson US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Jan Choinski Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Duncan Chan Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fabian Marozsan vs Taro Daniel?
Our model gives 55% to Fabian Marozsan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.