Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 26/09, 07:00
Prediction: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Gaston
Team pages: Jaime Faria · Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Jaime Faria
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jaime Faria
6-4 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jaime Faria 1549 · Hugo Gaston 1518
| Jaime Faria | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jaime Faria dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 47.6% break avg.
- Note: Jaime Faria makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Jaime Faria | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-13.2 | 11.6-11.2 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 7 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 69.2% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1
Over 22.5: 57% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 43% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jaime Faria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Terence Atmane ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-22 | L |
| 30/08 | Jenson Brooksby US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 20/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 17/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Yibing Wu ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 28/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Guido Ivan Justo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jaime Faria vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 59% to Jaime Faria, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.