Tennis · M15 Curitiba · 24/09, 17:30

Prediction: Rafael Tosetto vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

Team pages: Rafael Tosetto · Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

Prediction summary

Winner

49% 51%

Rafael Tosetto Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

Estimated games

Recent form · 10 last

Rafael Tosetto 7-3 (W-L)

WWWLWWLWLW

Joao Victor Couto Loureiro 7-3 (W-L)

LWLWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Rafael Tosetto 0–2 Joao Victor Couto Loureiro (2 last)

11 Jun0-2 5-12L
20 Jul0-2 7-12L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rafael Tosetto 1525 · Joao Victor Couto Loureiro 1498

	Rafael Tosetto	Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
Our model	54%	46%
Market	44%	56%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Rafael Tosetto is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Head-to-head: Rafael Tosetto 0–2 Joao Victor Couto Loureiro (2).

Statistics

	Rafael Tosetto	Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
Win %	70%	40%
Win % · Clay	–	33% (3)
Sets (G-P)	1.4-0.6	1.2-1.4
Games (G-P)	10.7-9.2	11.9-11.3
Aces	4.3	3.4
Double faults	2.2	3.1
1st serve %	71.3%	64.1%
Break %	42.3%	48.6%

Estimated total games (ours) 22

H2H · Rafael Tosetto 0 – 2 Joao Victor Couto Loureiro (2)

Odds Bet365

12.10

21.67

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10
2	2.00 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	2
00:30 +5’	1.73	2.00
02:31 +5’	2.10▲	1.67▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Rafael Tosetto 0–2 Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Sets	Games	Res.
11/06/26 M15 Brasilia	0-2	5-12	L
20/07/22 ITF M15 Cancun	0-2	7-12	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rafael Tosetto

WLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
23/09	Jefferson Wendler Filho M15 Curitiba	2-0	14-11	W
17/09	Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio M15 Belem	0-2	10-13	L
16/09	Jefferson Wendler Filho M15 Belem	2-0	11-7	W
12/09	Mateus Alves M15 Leme	0-2	5-12	L
12/09	Joao Goncalves M15 Leme	2-0	13-10	W
11/09	Pedro Rodrigues Longobardi M15 Leme	2-0	12-4	W
05/09	Mateus Alves M15 Porto Velho	0-2	4-12	L
04/09	Enzo Crevelaro M15 Porto Velho	2-0	12-8	W
03/09	Lucas Zancheta M15 Porto Velho	2-0	14-10	W
02/09	Lucca C Pignaton M15 Porto Velho	2-0	12-5	W

Joao Victor Couto Loureiro

LWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
22/09	Victor Braga M15 Curitiba	2-0	12-3	W
05/09	Deney Wassermann M15 Haren	1-2	13-17	L
03/09	Gabrielius Guzauskas M15 Haren	2-0	12-4	W
02/09	Elias Julian Werner M15 Haren	2-1	18-12	W
26/08	Botond Kisantal M15 Pecs	1-2	13-14	L
20/08	Kevin Edengren M15 Bastad · ~Clay	1-2	15-15	L
19/08	Dorian Tremblay M15 Bastad · ~Clay	2-1	18-11	W
11/08	Davide Tortora M15 Malmo	0-2	5-12	L
02/08	Dominik Kellovsky Challenger Plovdiv · Clay	1-2	12-13	L
23/07	Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos M25 Sao Paulo	0-2	1-12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rafael Tosetto vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro?

Our model gives 51% to Joao Victor Couto Loureiro, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.