Tennis · M15 Curitiba · 25/09, 18:30
Prediction: Mateus Alves vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
Team pages: Mateus Alves · Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
Prediction summary
Winner
Mateus Alves
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Mateus Alves
9-1 (W-L)
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mateus Alves 1620 · Joao Victor Couto Loureiro 1510
| Mateus Alves | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mateus Alves (rating 1620 vs 1510).
- Mateus Alves dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 53.7% break avg.
- Mateus Alves is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mateus Alves | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.2 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-5.1 | 13.6-11.9 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 79.6% | 66.2% |
| Break % | 53.7% | 46.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mateus Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/09 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/09 | Ryan Augusto Dos Santos M15 Leme |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Victor Braga M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto M15 Porto Velho |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 05/09 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Porto Velho |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/09 | Gabriel Schenekenberg M15 Porto Velho |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/09 | Victor Pignaton M15 Porto Velho |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Curitiba |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 22/09 | Victor Braga M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/09 | Deney Wassermann M15 Haren |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 03/09 | Gabrielius Guzauskas M15 Haren |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | Elias Julian Werner M15 Haren |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Botond Kisantal M15 Pecs |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Kevin Edengren M15 Bastad · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 19/08 | Dorian Tremblay M15 Bastad · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 11/08 | Davide Tortora M15 Malmo |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Dominik Kellovsky Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mateus Alves vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro?
Our model gives 76% to Mateus Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.