Tennis · M15 Curitiba · 26/09, 17:00
Prediction: Mateus Alves vs Wilson Leite
Team pages: Mateus Alves · Wilson Leite
Prediction summary
Winner
Mateus Alves
Wilson Leite
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Mateus Alves
9-1 (W-L)
Wilson Leite
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mateus Alves
3–1
Wilson Leite
(4 last)
- 01 Aug2-0 12-3W
- 29 Oct2-0 12-4W
- 29 Sept2-1 16-8W
- 02 Oct0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mateus Alves 1632 · Wilson Leite 1532
| Mateus Alves | Wilson Leite | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mateus Alves (rating 1632 vs 1532).
- Mateus Alves is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mateus Alves 3–1 Wilson Leite (4).
Statistics
| Mateus Alves | Wilson Leite | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.2 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-6 | 10.2-10.4 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 79.2% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 53.3% | 32.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
H2H · Mateus Alves 3 – 1 Wilson Leite (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mateus Alves 3–1 Wilson Leite
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 M15 Sao Paulo | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/10/24 ITF M25 Lajeado | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/09/24 Challenger Buenos Aires | 2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 02/10/23 Challenger Campinas | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mateus Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/09 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/09 | Ryan Augusto Dos Santos M15 Leme |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Victor Braga M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto M15 Porto Velho |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 05/09 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Porto Velho |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/09 | Gabriel Schenekenberg M15 Porto Velho |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Wilson Leite
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Jose Pereira M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Gabriel Roveri Sidney M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Martin Antonio Vergara del Puerto M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos M25 Londrina |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Mateus Alves M15 Sao Paulo |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Benjamin Torrealba M15 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 30/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 26/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Filipe Bullamah Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mateus Alves vs Wilson Leite?
Our model gives 75% to Mateus Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.