Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 25/09, 07:00
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Valentin Royer
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Valentin Royer
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Valentin Royer
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
5-5 (W-L)
Valentin Royer
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1533 · Valentin Royer 1559
| Daniil Medvedev | Valentin Royer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 10.5 aces and 45.4% break avg.
- Valentin Royer dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (6.2/match).
- Note: Valentin Royer makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Valentin Royer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.4-14.2 | 14-11.3 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 6.8 |
| Double faults | 6.2 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 77.2% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4
Over 20.5: 76% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 24% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 04/09 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Sebastian Gorzny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
Valentin Royer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Adam Walton ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-28 | L |
| 22/08 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 20/08 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/08 | Tyler Zink Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Luis Guto Miguel Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 14/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 06/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Valentin Royer?
Our model gives 61% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.