Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 24/09, 07:00
Prediction: Dane Sweeny vs Taro Daniel
Team pages: Dane Sweeny · Taro Daniel
Prediction summary
Winner
Dane Sweeny
Taro Daniel
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Dane Sweeny
4-6 (W-L)
Taro Daniel
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Dane Sweeny
2–1
Taro Daniel
(3 last)
- 10 Feb2-0 13-9W
- 04 Oct2-0 12-5W
- 05 Aug0-2 11-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dane Sweeny 1459 · Taro Daniel 1554
| Dane Sweeny | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taro Daniel (rating 1459 vs 1554).
- Taro Daniel is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Dane Sweeny 2–1 Taro Daniel (3).
- Note: Dane Sweeny makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Dane Sweeny | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.9 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-15.3 | 12.1-9.2 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 72% |
| Break % | 39.9% | 53.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.7
Over 22.5: 55% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.80
H2H · Dane Sweeny 2 – 1 Taro Daniel (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dane Sweeny 2–1 Taro Daniel
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/26 Challenger Brisbane | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/10/23 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08/23 ATP Toronto | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dane Sweeny
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Lorenzo Musetti US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-11 | W |
| 18/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Tomas Barrios Vera Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-24 | W |
Taro Daniel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Hayato Matsuoka ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/09 | Jake Delaney ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/09 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Andrew Johnson US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Jan Choinski Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Duncan Chan Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dane Sweeny vs Taro Daniel?
Our model gives 60% to Taro Daniel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.