Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 24/09, 08:30
Prediction: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Bolt
Team pages: Fabian Marozsan · Alex Bolt
Prediction summary
Winner
Fabian Marozsan
Alex Bolt
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Fabian Marozsan
6-4 (W-L)
Alex Bolt
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fabian Marozsan 1496 · Alex Bolt 1489
| Fabian Marozsan | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Fabian Marozsan | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-13.1 | 10.8-12.6 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 25.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.8
Over 21.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 38% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fabian Marozsan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Louis Van Herck Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 28/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 27/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 6-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Thiago Agustin Tirante Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Alex Bolt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Akira Santillan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Omar Jasika ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/07 | James McCabe ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 13/06 | Jamie Mackenzie ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Bolt?
Our model gives 65% to Fabian Marozsan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.