Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 23/09, 06:00
Prediction: Taro Daniel vs Hayato Matsuoka
Team pages: Taro Daniel · Hayato Matsuoka
Prediction summary
Winner
Taro Daniel
Hayato Matsuoka
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taro Daniel
8-2 (W-L)
Hayato Matsuoka
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taro Daniel 1567 · Hayato Matsuoka 1531
| Taro Daniel | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Taro Daniel | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-9 | 13.6-12.2 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 77.8% |
| Break % | 55.8% | 36.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 52% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taro Daniel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Jake Delaney ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/09 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Andrew Johnson US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Jan Choinski Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Duncan Chan Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/08 | Maxime St-Hilaire Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Arthur Weber ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 14/08 | Fajing Sun Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taro Daniel vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 59% to Taro Daniel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.