Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 23/09, 06:00
Prediction: Alex Bolt vs Akira Santillan
Team pages: Alex Bolt · Akira Santillan
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Bolt
Akira Santillan
Estimated games
21.7Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Bolt
3-7 (W-L)
Akira Santillan
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Bolt
2–2
Akira Santillan
(4 last)
- 02 May2-0 13-9W
- 12 Dec3-1 24-11W
- 10 Nov0-2 5-12L
- 02 Feb1-2 11-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Bolt 1466 · Akira Santillan 1480
| Alex Bolt | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alex Bolt | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-13.3 | 9.5-10.7 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 21.6% | 55.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.8
Over 23.5: 38% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 62% · 1.80
H2H · Alex Bolt 2 – 2 Akira Santillan (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Bolt 2–2 Akira Santillan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/19 Challenger Seoul | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/12/18 Australian Open WC | 3-1 | 24-11 | W |
| 10/11/17 Challenger Kobe | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/02/17 Challenger Burnie | 1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Bolt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Omar Jasika ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/07 | James McCabe ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 13/06 | Jamie Mackenzie ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Arthur Fery Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Akira Santillan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Kaigaoge Kang ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Sanhui Shin M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 22/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Bolt vs Akira Santillan?
Our model gives 58% to Alex Bolt, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.