Tennis · Challenger Plovdiv · 22/09, 09:00
Prediction: Iliyan Radulov vs Pavel Lagutin
Team pages: Iliyan Radulov · Pavel Lagutin
Prediction summary
Winner
Iliyan Radulov
Pavel Lagutin
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Iliyan Radulov
4-6 (W-L)
Pavel Lagutin
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iliyan Radulov 1408 · Pavel Lagutin 1586
| Iliyan Radulov | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 74% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1408 vs 1586).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Iliyan Radulov | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.7 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.8-12.9 | 13-8.4 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 59.3% | 64.2% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iliyan Radulov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Elmer Moller Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Holger Rune Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Seville · Clay |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 24/08 | Johannus Monday Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Mark Ceban Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Johannus Monday Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Cyril Vandermeersch Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Pavel Lagutin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Rares Teodor Pieleanu Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/09 | Maximilian Marterer Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/09 | Matthieu Roehrich Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/09 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Seville · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Goncalo Marques M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iliyan Radulov vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model gives 73% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.