Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 22/09, 07:30
Prediction: Arthur Weber vs Hayato Matsuoka
Team pages: Arthur Weber · Hayato Matsuoka
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Weber
Hayato Matsuoka
Estimated games
21.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Weber
8-2 (W-L)
Hayato Matsuoka
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Arthur Weber
0–1
Hayato Matsuoka
(1 last)
- 28 Dec1-2 13-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Weber 1575 · Hayato Matsuoka 1520
| Arthur Weber | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Weber (rating 1575 vs 1520).
- Head-to-head: Arthur Weber 0–1 Hayato Matsuoka (1).
Statistics
| Arthur Weber | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.4 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-6.5 | 13.5-11.8 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 1 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 76.9% |
| Break % | 56% | 37.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.2
Over 22.5: 41% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 59% · 1.80
H2H · Arthur Weber 0 – 1 Hayato Matsuoka (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arthur Weber 0–1 Hayato Matsuoka
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/24 M15 Bali | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Weber
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tai Leonard Sach Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 08/09 | Tran Quoc Cuong Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 06/09 | Moerani Bouzige M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/09 | Thantub Suksumrarn M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Thanapet Chanta M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Hayato Matsuoka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 14/08 | Fajing Sun Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Weber vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 54% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.