Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 22/09, 06:00
Prediction: Alex Bolt vs Omar Jasika
Team pages: Alex Bolt · Omar Jasika
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Bolt
Omar Jasika
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Bolt
3-7 (W-L)
Omar Jasika
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Bolt
2–5
Omar Jasika
(7 last)
- 26 Sept2-1 16-11W
- 04 Feb1-2 12-18L
- 12 Sept1-2 15-18L
- 16 Mar0-2 2-12L
- 05 Jan0-2 6-12L
- 29 Oct0-2 4-12L
- 12 Apr2-0 14-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Bolt 1462 · Omar Jasika 1527
| Alex Bolt | Omar Jasika | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Omar Jasika (rating 1462 vs 1527).
- Omar Jasika is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alex Bolt 2–5 Omar Jasika (7).
Statistics
| Alex Bolt | Omar Jasika | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.9 | 10.5-8.7 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 70% |
| Break % | 24.4% | 42.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.9
Over 23.5: 37% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 63% · 1.83
H2H · Alex Bolt 2 – 5 Omar Jasika (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Bolt 2–5 Omar Jasika
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/25 Challenger Jingshan | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 04/02/24 Challenger Burnie | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 12/09/23 Challenger Guangzhou | 1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 16/03/17 ITF Australia F2 | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 05/01/17 Challenger Happy Valley | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/10/14 Challenger Traralgon | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/04/14 ITF Australia F5 | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Bolt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/07 | James McCabe ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 13/06 | Jamie Mackenzie ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Arthur Fery Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 02/06 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Omar Jasika
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Aoran Wang Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Kousuke Ogura M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Bolt vs Omar Jasika?
Our model gives 50% to Alex Bolt, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.