Tennis · ATP Hangzhou · 24/09, 06:00
Prediction: Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Gaston
Team pages: Sho Shimabukuro · Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
22.7Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sho Shimabukuro
5-5 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sho Shimabukuro
0–1
Hugo Gaston
(1 last)
- 29 Aug0-3 9-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sho Shimabukuro 1463 · Hugo Gaston 1510
| Sho Shimabukuro | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hugo Gaston (rating 1463 vs 1510).
- Head-to-head: Sho Shimabukuro 0–1 Hugo Gaston (1).
- Note: Sho Shimabukuro makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Sho Shimabukuro | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-12.7 | 11.6-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 67.7% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -0.8
Over 23.5: 45% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 55% · 1.83
H2H · Sho Shimabukuro 0 – 1 Hugo Gaston (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sho Shimabukuro 0–1 Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/23 US Open | 0-3 | 9-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sho Shimabukuro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | James Watt Davis Cup |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/08 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 23/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Hugo Dellien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 28/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Guido Ivan Justo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 52% to Hugo Gaston, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.