Tennis · Challenger Plovdiv · 21/09, 11:30
Prediction: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Nikita Mashtakov
Team pages: Pavlos Tsitsipas · Nikita Mashtakov
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Nikita Mashtakov
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Pavlos Tsitsipas
3-7 (W-L)
Nikita Mashtakov
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavlos Tsitsipas 1473 · Nikita Mashtakov 1565
| Pavlos Tsitsipas | Nikita Mashtakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikita Mashtakov (rating 1473 vs 1565).
- Nikita Mashtakov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Pavlos Tsitsipas makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Pavlos Tsitsipas | Nikita Mashtakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-13.8 | 12.7-10.3 |
| Aces | 4 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 13/09 | Robert Strombachs Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Niccolo Catini M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Matyas Kozlovsky M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Dino Molokova Ferreira M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/08 | Arda Azkara M15 Turku |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Nikita Mashtakov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Alexander Weis Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/09 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Stefan Popovic Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Jannik Opitz Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Valentin Basel Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/08 | Daniel Michalski M25 Poznan |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Poznan |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Poznan |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Nikita Mashtakov?
Our model gives 75% to Nikita Mashtakov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.