Tennis · Challenger Phan Thiet · 20/09, 05:00
Prediction: Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Ilia Simakin
Team pages: Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez · Ilia Simakin
Prediction summary
Winner
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Ilia Simakin
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
6-4 (W-L)
Ilia Simakin
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 1562 · Ilia Simakin 1638
| Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilia Simakin (rating 1562 vs 1638).
- Ilia Simakin dominates on serve: 8 aces and 80% break avg.
- Ilia Simakin is in better form: 100% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 2-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-9.4 | 13.3-7.9 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 8 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 76.4% | 89% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 80% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Moise Kouame Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 18/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/08 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Paul Jubb Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Ilia Simakin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/09 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 06/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model gives 59% to Ilia Simakin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.