Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 18/09, 13:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Alexandr Binda
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · Alexandr Binda
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Alexandr Binda
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
Alexandr Binda
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1533 · Alexandr Binda 1563
| Bernard Tomic | Alexandr Binda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alexandr Binda dominates on serve: 8 aces and 45.1% break avg.
- Note: Alexandr Binda makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Alexandr Binda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.8 | 11.8-9.9 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 8 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 33.1% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/09 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Edward Winter Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Karen Khachanov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Alexandr Binda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Aoran Wang Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Kousuke Ogura Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 13/09 | Kaito Uesugi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Mikalai Haliak Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/09 | Cheng-Peng Hsieh Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/08 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Mert Naci Turker Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Alexandr Binda?
Our model gives 66% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.