Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 18/09, 09:00
Prediction: Elias Ymer vs Marat Sharipov
Team pages: Elias Ymer · Marat Sharipov
Prediction summary
Winner
Elias Ymer
Marat Sharipov
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Elias Ymer
4-6 (W-L)
Marat Sharipov
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elias Ymer 1487 · Marat Sharipov 1588
| Elias Ymer | Marat Sharipov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marat Sharipov (rating 1487 vs 1588).
- Elias Ymer dominates on serve: 6 aces and 40.5% break avg.
- Marat Sharipov dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 51.6% break avg.
- Marat Sharipov is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Elias Ymer | Marat Sharipov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11.9 | 13.3-9.7 |
| Aces | 6 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 83% |
| Break % | 40.5% | 51.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elias Ymer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Franco Roncadelli US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Paul Jubb Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Federico Cina Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Marat Sharipov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 15/09 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 12/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Taro Daniel Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/09 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 15/08 | Sean Cuenin M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Alexander Vasilev M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/08 | Anton Arzhankin M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elias Ymer vs Marat Sharipov?
Our model gives 61% to Marat Sharipov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.