Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 18/09, 09:00
Prediction: Pavel Kotov vs Rio Noguchi
Team pages: Pavel Kotov · Rio Noguchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Kotov
Rio Noguchi
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Kotov
4-6 (W-L)
Rio Noguchi
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Kotov 1551 · Rio Noguchi 1532
| Pavel Kotov | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Pavel Kotov | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11.7 | 12.3-11.4 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 38% | 50% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Kotov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Franco Ribero Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/06 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Rigele Te Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Alan Magadan Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 24/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Kotov vs Rio Noguchi?
Our model gives 60% to Pavel Kotov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.