Tennis · M25 Guiyang · 17/09, 05:30
Prediction: Alibek Kachmazov vs Qian Sun
Team pages: Alibek Kachmazov · Qian Sun
Prediction summary
Winner
Alibek Kachmazov
Qian Sun
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Alibek Kachmazov
6-4 (W-L)
Qian Sun
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alibek Kachmazov 1565 · Qian Sun 1524
| Alibek Kachmazov | Qian Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alibek Kachmazov (rating 1565 vs 1524).
- Alibek Kachmazov dominates on serve: 10.5 aces and 43% break avg.
- Qian Sun dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 61.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Alibek Kachmazov | Qian Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-9.9 | 13.4-11.6 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 80.2% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 43% | 61.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alibek Kachmazov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Shaoyun Liu M25 Guiyang |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Louis Wessels Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Astana · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 06/08 | Sora Fukuda M15 Astana |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/04 | Anton Arzhankin M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/04 | Marek Gengel M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/04 | Fares Zakaria M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 23/04 | Semen Pankin M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/04 | Cedric Stanke M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Qian Sun
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Lachlan Vickery M25 Guiyang |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Yuta Tomida M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/09 | Colin Sinclair M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/09 | Miles Jones M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Hiromasa Koyama M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Ammar Faleh Alhogbani M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 27/08 | Fumin Jiang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 26/08 | Petr Bar Biryukov M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Yunseong Chung M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alibek Kachmazov vs Qian Sun?
Our model gives 67% to Alibek Kachmazov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.