Tennis · M25 Guiyang · 17/09, 05:30
Prediction: Zhenxiong Dong vs Chase Ferguson
Team pages: Zhenxiong Dong · Chase Ferguson
Prediction summary
Winner
Zhenxiong Dong
Chase Ferguson
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Zhenxiong Dong
4-6 (W-L)
Chase Ferguson
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zhenxiong Dong 1426 · Chase Ferguson 1564
| Zhenxiong Dong | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chase Ferguson (rating 1426 vs 1564).
- Chase Ferguson is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Zhenxiong Dong | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 22% (9) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-12 | 12.6-10.7 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.2% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 32.1% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zhenxiong Dong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Matthew Shearer M25 Guiyang |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 25/08 | Lingxi Zhao M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Zhao Zhao M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-10 | L |
| 09/06 | Jaesung Choe M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Tsung-Hao Huang M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Alexey Aleshchev M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Shu Muto M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/04 | Luca Castelnuovo M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/04 | Qian Sun M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Chase Ferguson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Minghui Zhang M25 Guiyang |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 12/09 | Jerry Roddick M25 Sapporo |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Sanhui Shin M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/09 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Riku Takahata M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/09 | Keisuke Saitoh M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Yusuke Takahashi M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 29/08 | Rigele Te M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Fumin Jiang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Hanyi Liu M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zhenxiong Dong vs Chase Ferguson?
Our model gives 77% to Chase Ferguson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.