Prediction: Haruna Arakawa vs Natsumi Kawaguchi
Team pages: Haruna Arakawa
Prediction summary
Winner
Haruna Arakawa
Natsumi Kawaguchi
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Haruna Arakawa
7-3 (W-L)
Natsumi Kawaguchi
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Haruna Arakawa 1522 · Natsumi Kawaguchi 1481
| Haruna Arakawa | Natsumi Kawaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Haruna Arakawa (rating 1522 vs 1481).
- Haruna Arakawa is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Haruna Arakawa | Natsumi Kawaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-8.3 | 10.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 63.5% | 60.3% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 57.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Haruna Arakawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Hee Rae Im W35 Kyoto |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Riko Kikawada W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Clarissa Blomqvist W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 27/08 | Luisa Schruff W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Ophelia Korpanec Davies W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 16/08 | Asylzhan Arystanbekova W15 Astana |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Ha Eum Lee W15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Zeel Desai W15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/08 | Nina Sozaonova W15 Astana |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Sreemanya Reddy Anugonda W15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Natsumi Kawaguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Kayo Nishimura W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/09 | Yujia Huang W50 Guiyang |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Funa Kozaki W75 Tianjin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Priska Madelyn Nugroho W15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Ya-Yi Yang W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Yu-Chen Lin W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Yuno Kitahara W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/05 | Valentina Ryser W100 Takasaki · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Sayaka Ishii W100 Takasaki · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/05 | Kurea Hayasaka W100 Takasaki · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Haruna Arakawa vs Natsumi Kawaguchi?
Our model gives 60% to Natsumi Kawaguchi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.