Prediction: Rinko Matsuda vs Natsumi Kawaguchi
Team pages: Rinko Matsuda · Natsumi Kawaguchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Rinko Matsuda
Natsumi Kawaguchi
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Rinko Matsuda
7-3 (W-L)
Natsumi Kawaguchi
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rinko Matsuda 1576 · Natsumi Kawaguchi 1482
| Rinko Matsuda | Natsumi Kawaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rinko Matsuda (rating 1576 vs 1482).
- Rinko Matsuda is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rinko Matsuda | Natsumi Kawaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-11.4 | 10.3-10.2 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 54.8% | 59.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rinko Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Hina Inoue W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Ayumi Miyamoto W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Shiyu Ye W75 Tianjin |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Sakura Hosogi W75 Tianjin |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 27/08 | Priska Madelyn Nugroho W15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Kamonwan Yodpetch W15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Meng Yi Chen W15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 22/08 | Peangtarn Plipuech W15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Ya-Yi Yang W15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 20/08 | Na Ri Kim W15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Natsumi Kawaguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Haruna Arakawa W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/09 | Kayo Nishimura W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/09 | Yujia Huang W50 Guiyang |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Funa Kozaki W75 Tianjin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Priska Madelyn Nugroho W15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Ya-Yi Yang W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Yu-Chen Lin W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Yuno Kitahara W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/05 | Valentina Ryser W100 Takasaki · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Sayaka Ishii W100 Takasaki · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rinko Matsuda vs Natsumi Kawaguchi?
Our model gives 52% to Rinko Matsuda, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.