Tennis · Challenger Phan Thiet · 18/09, 06:00
Prediction: Blake Ellis vs Ilia Simakin
Team pages: Blake Ellis · Ilia Simakin
Prediction summary
Winner
Blake Ellis
Ilia Simakin
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Blake Ellis
5-5 (W-L)
Ilia Simakin
10-0 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Blake Ellis
0–1
Ilia Simakin
(1 last)
- 18 Feb0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blake Ellis 1502 · Ilia Simakin 1657
| Blake Ellis | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilia Simakin (rating 1502 vs 1657).
- Ilia Simakin dominates on serve: 7 aces and 56.8% break avg.
- Ilia Simakin is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Blake Ellis 0–1 Ilia Simakin (1).
Statistics
| Blake Ellis | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 2-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.7 | 13.4-8.5 |
| Aces | 8 | 7 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 81.5% |
| Break % | 23.1% | 56.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Blake Ellis 0 – 1 Ilia Simakin (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Blake Ellis 0–1 Ilia Simakin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/25 Challenger Pune | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blake Ellis
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Benjamin O'Connell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Hayden Jones M15 Bali |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Reece Falck M15 Bali |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Joshua Charlton M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Benjamin O'Connell M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Hayden Jones M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Ilia Simakin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/09 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 06/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 04/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blake Ellis vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model gives 76% to Ilia Simakin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.