Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 17/09, 09:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Jake Delaney
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · Jake Delaney
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Jake Delaney
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
Jake Delaney
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1550 · Jake Delaney 1500
| Bernard Tomic | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1550 vs 1500).
- Jake Delaney dominates on serve: 9.8 aces and 43.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.4 | 12.1-11.9 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.7% | 76.2% |
| Break % | 35.9% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Edward Winter Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Karen Khachanov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Jake Delaney
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Hikaru Shiraishi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 09/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 07/09 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 01/09 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Hyeon Chung M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Moerani Bouzige M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Jeremy Zhang M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/07 | Joshua Charlton M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 26/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Jake Delaney?
Our model gives 66% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.