Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 16/09, 09:00
Prediction: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo
Team pages: Elias Ymer · Luca Castelnuovo
Prediction summary
Winner
Elias Ymer
Luca Castelnuovo
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Elias Ymer
3-7 (W-L)
Luca Castelnuovo
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elias Ymer 1472 · Luca Castelnuovo 1569
| Elias Ymer | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Castelnuovo (rating 1472 vs 1569).
- Elias Ymer dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 9.2 aces and 48% break avg.
- Luca Castelnuovo is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Elias Ymer | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-12.4 | 12.1-11.1 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 9.2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elias Ymer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Franco Roncadelli US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Paul Jubb Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Federico Cina Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 52% to Elias Ymer, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.