Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 16/09, 09:00
Prediction: Pavel Kotov vs Akira Santillan
Team pages: Pavel Kotov · Akira Santillan
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Kotov
Akira Santillan
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Kotov
4-6 (W-L)
Akira Santillan
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pavel Kotov
1–0
Akira Santillan
(1 last)
- 07 Oct2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Kotov 1541 · Akira Santillan 1469
| Pavel Kotov | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Kotov (rating 1541 vs 1469).
- Head-to-head: Pavel Kotov 1–0 Akira Santillan (1).
Statistics
| Pavel Kotov | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12 | 9.4-11.4 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 38.6% | 52.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Pavel Kotov 1 – 0 Akira Santillan (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pavel Kotov 1–0 Akira Santillan
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/25 Challenger Jinan | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Kotov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Franco Ribero Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/06 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
Akira Santillan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Sanhui Shin M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 22/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Alastair Gray Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 18/07 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Kotov vs Akira Santillan?
Our model gives 66% to Pavel Kotov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.