Tennis · M25 Guiyang · 15/09, 07:00
Prediction: Alibek Kachmazov vs Shaoyun Liu
Team pages: Alibek Kachmazov · Shaoyun Liu
Prediction summary
Winner
Alibek Kachmazov
Shaoyun Liu
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alibek Kachmazov
7-3 (W-L)
Shaoyun Liu
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alibek Kachmazov 1557 · Shaoyun Liu 1448
| Alibek Kachmazov | Shaoyun Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 92% | 8% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alibek Kachmazov (rating 1557 vs 1448).
- Alibek Kachmazov dominates on serve: 9.2 aces and 43.5% break avg.
- Alibek Kachmazov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alibek Kachmazov | Shaoyun Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-10.5 | 8.5-10.4 |
| Aces | 9.2 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 80% | 64.3% |
| Break % | 43.5% | 34.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alibek Kachmazov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Louis Wessels Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Astana · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 06/08 | Sora Fukuda M15 Astana |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/04 | Anton Arzhankin M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/04 | Marek Gengel M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/04 | Fares Zakaria M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 23/04 | Semen Pankin M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/04 | Cedric Stanke M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/04 | Maximilian Neuchrist M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Shaoyun Liu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Shijie Chen M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-7 | L |
| 03/09 | Colin Sinclair M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Zicong Wang M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/09 | Mingliang Yue M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Reiya Komagata M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 25/08 | Xin Zhou M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Xirui Han M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Yan Cheng Chen M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/04 | S D Prajwal Dev M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Michael Zhu M25 Anning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alibek Kachmazov vs Shaoyun Liu?
Our model gives 80% to Alibek Kachmazov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.